What is the definition of "surmise"?

The term "surmise" refers to the act of forming an opinion or making a judgment about something based on limited evidence or intuition, rather than on firm proof or knowledge. Therefore, the definition that captures this essence is thinking or believing without certain supporting evidence. This reflects the inherent uncertainty in a surmise, where one might speculate or assume something is true based on indirect cues or personal feeling rather than concrete facts.

Understanding this definition is crucial, especially in contexts where decisions or beliefs are derived from incomplete information. The other options either describe a more definitive belief or assertiveness that does not align with the tentative nature of a surmise. The nuance of surmising involves a degree of conjecture, making it distinct from certainty or strong opinions.